Democracy at Work

I LOVE this stuff! The Washington Post has a great article today on the digestive processes of democracy (as illustrated by the give-and-take around the judicial filibuster issue): it sure ain't pretty and it sure is slow but the fact that it is going on is proof that the patient is alive.

I am going to go out on a limb and make two predictions about all of this:

1. Frist will not push the button on the nuclear option. He won't, because he knows he will lose regardless of the outcome. The biggest blow would be if he pushed the button and lost the vote. That is a very real possibility. All that is necessary is for six Republican senators to vote in favor of keeping the filibuster. Three -- McCain, Chaffe and Snowe -- have already said that they would do so if it comes to a vote. Three others -- Warner, Specter, and Collins -- are pointedly undeclared and seem likely to stay that way until actually forced to vote. Two others reportedly "in play" are Breaux and Collins. In short, if Frist were to push the button he would have to do so without being sure he could win. And losing would be unthinkable. On the other hand, even if he did win the vote, he would lose in the long run. He would be the man that turned the Senate in the House of Representatives. His actions would come to be seen as a raw power play in which he sacrificed the traditions of the Senate and its historic commitment to the rights of the minority on the altar of political expediency. The day after the vote it will be obvious to everyone that something important was lost over an issue that in reality is pretty trivial: whether Patricia Owens gets a seat on the Fifth Circuit. And Frist will be the guy who did it. Frist, in short, has no upside in forcing this to a vote. His upside lies in fighting the fight, since in doing so he demonstrates to the Right that he is a standup guy.

2. The issue will be resolved the way such issues always are in a Democracy: by a compromise that allows both sides to declare victory. Bush will get 3 or 4 but not all of his nominees confirmed and Frist will be able to say -- truthfully -- that he "fought the good fight" and made the Democrats blink. The Democrats will have defeated 2 or 3 of the nominations despite being in a minority and despite the enormous influence of the Presidency, and that they too "fought the good fight" and preserved the filibuster for another, more important day. Yet, neither side will have won so clear a victory as to embolden them to (greater) arrogance.

As I have said before, I believe Judges should bring their personal beliefs on what the law should be to bear on their decisions. As a result, I also believe that the process of appointment is -- must be -- a fundamentally political process, since that is the way the People ultimately influence the direction in which the Court is leading the Country. So, while the shenanigans going on now around (a very small number of) Bush's the judicial nominations are like watching sausage being made, it is nonetheless the epitome of a democratic process. And, I think, everything will be fine in the end. As a good friend likes to say: The Sturm and Drang notwithstanding, "the Republic is safe."

Update: Told you so!