Tuesday, December 27, 2005

Iraq and Third World Poverty: Agreeing (Mostly) With The LA Times

There are two good opinion pieces in today's LA Times. They are "good," of course, becuase for the most part they agree with me!

One of these is an op-ed piece by Richard Haass, President of the Council on Foreign Relations entitled "Iraq and the Fortunes of War." Haass makes a series of points that will sound familiar those of you who read this blog with any regularity:

  1. "To [withdraw the troops] under present circumstances would be irresponsible. It is not, as is often stated, that withdrawal would undermine the value of all sacrifices made until now. Rather, leaving too soon could lead to a civil war among the Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds that in turn would draw in the neighboring states.

    Why must that be prevented? Because chaos in a country of Iraq's resources and its location would be enormously costly. Terrorists would establish a stronger foothold there. Oil and gas production, the foundation of the world economy, would be disrupted. And perception among pro-Western governments that the United States is a reliable friend and ally would be gravely harmed."
  2. At the same time, though, it is obvious "that we cannot sustain the current level of military effort given the strain on manpower and equipment; that force reductions would ease domestic political pressure on the White House and that they would address the argument that the insurgency is in part a reaction to the large U.S. presence. Near-term reductions also can be justified on the basis that the scale of American effort may actually be slowing the emergence of a capable Iraqi army, in that it reduces the urgency and breeds what some describe as a culture of dependency."
  3. As a result of this tension, "[w]e will see the continued reorientation of U.S. forces away from offensive operations and toward the training and advising of Iraqis. More emphasis will be placed on holding secured territory and leaving the fight against the insurgency to Iraqi soldiers and police. This too should reduce U.S. casualties.

  4. As to the probable outcome, "[i]t is, in principle, possible that Iraq one day [may emerge as] a successful democracy at peace with itself and its neighbors, providing a model for other states in the region to emulate. . . . Far more likely is something less and different: a barely functional Iraq, with a weak central government and highly autonomous regions, including a relatively secular, Kurdish-dominated north; a far more religious, Shiite-dominated south; a similarly religious, Sunni-dominated west; and a demographically mixed and unsettled center that includes the capital of Baghdad. . . . Still, a barely functional Iraq would be good, and at this point good enough. Sometimes in foreign policy, it is more important to avoid catastrophe than it is to reach for perfection. This is one of those times."
The only point in this with which I have some disagreement is the argument that the "reorientation of U.S. forces "will be away from offensive operations" and that "[m]ore emphasis will be placed on holding secured territory and leaving the fight against the insurgency to Iraqi soldiers and police." While I agree a reorientation of US forces is coming, I think it will be in the opposite direction. The reorientation, it seems to me, will be away from the policing and patrolling functions that are necessary to hold previously secured territotry and toward the offensive operations that are necessary to allow such holding operations to begin. There will for some time yet be a need for US forces to undertake or at least participate in the sort of pitched battle offensive operations necessary to drive insurgent forces from their strongholds. But more and more, the job of holding such strongholds once taken will fall, of necessity, to the Iraqis.

The second piece, is an LA Times editorial suggesting that "2005 will go down as a turning point in the global war on poverty." The editorial makes three points that will again sound familiar:

  1. "Although there are plenty of reasons for disappointment — most notably the lack of progress in the Doha round of trade talks — there are reasons to be hopeful that the world's attitude toward poverty has evolved: It's no longer hopeless, or somebody else's problem."
  2. After 50 years of seeing poor countries as nothing more than pawns in the "Great Game" that was the Cold War, another 10 or so years of simply ignoring them, and a final 5 years of making grandiose promises that were not kept, 2005 was the year in which "[s]purred on by activists like Bono and Bob Geldof, philanthropists like the Gateses and world leaders like British Prime Minister Tony Blair, wealthy nations [finally] took a deep breath and opened their pocketbooks."
  3. But the progress is agonizingly slow. "Especially disappointing was the failure by the World Trade Organization to make much progress in opening markets and reducing subsidies for agricultural goods, a critical step toward raising living standards in the Third World. Bizarrely, leaders of industrialized nations would rather give away money than free up their markets, which would boost their own economies as well as those of their trading partners. A better trade deal must be put at the top of the world's agenda in the coming year."
I have one small quibble with this as well. I think there are signs of hope even in the results of the Doha talks. True, the talks did not produce the reduction of the developed world's trade barriers and subsidies that are, admittedly, critical to raising Third World living standards. However, I think even here that significant progress was made in getting the developed world to recongnize both the importance and eventual inevitability of those steps. As such, even here, 2005 may prove to have been a turning point.

More On Intelligent Design

For those of you who are interested in this topic there is (to me at least) an interesting comment thread under this post.

Sunday, December 25, 2005

Merry Christmas/Happy Holidays/Joyful Soltice

It's 2:20 am Christmas morning. The hurly burly of Christmas Eve is over. The children (and the significant other) are all wrapped snugly in their beds with visions of who knows waht dancing in their heads. (Fortuantely they no longer get up at 6 am!) And Mom in her nightgown and I still in my church clothes (sans tie and with scotch however) are on the verge of settling down for a short winter's nap. As soon as Ma gets done stuffing stockings that is.

And, while I watch that little ritual, I just had the urge to wish all of you a very Merry Chirstmas and a great new year. There was a lot about 2005 that could have been better. But, there was a lot more that could have been much worse. All in all, I'm feeling pretty lucky tonight. Hope all of you are as well.

Bill

Saturday, December 24, 2005

Spygate

The print version of this article on the front page of the NYT today reads as follows: "Actions Without Warrants Are Callled Wider Than Yet Acknowldged."

This story is not going to go away, and the more deeply it is looked into the more will come out. We are on the verge, I think, of something big. I wonder if Bush tape records himself?

Thursday, December 22, 2005

Religion In Schools: Sadly, It Ain't Over Yet

A propos of the Dover Intelligent Design Decision, a friend sent me the following e-mail yesterday:
Good old American Democracy worked pretty well here. The school board essentially got replaced, and the courts were there to protect the First Amendment. Freedom from religion was upheld. What more could you ask for?
I'm not sure, but I suspect that the "Freedom from religion" phrase was probably not a typo, but was a way of implying that the Dover decision was just one more secularist victory in the ceaseless "war" being waged on religion. If that is what is was, it is a cute little barb, but no less than the supposed "war on Christmas" the claim it makes is utter nonesense. There is no "war on religion" going on in America today. Quite to the contrary, the "war," if there is one, is on people who have beliefs different from James Dobsen, Tony Perkins and their ilk.

But let's ignore that for the moment and focus instead on the larger point. Yes, the system did"work." And, the part of this story I like the best is the congruence between the political and judicial. For once, the court is not out there by itself in rejecting this stuff. In fact, the voters themselves beat the courts to it.

(Note, though, that, as reported in the Washington Post, this political and judicial congruence has not prevented personal attacks on Judge Jones, nor has it vitiated the expectation that Bush's Supreme Court nominees will be sufficiently activist to bring an end to 50 years of Establishment Clause jurisprudence.
"This decision is a poster child for a half-century secularist reign of terror that's coming to a rapid end with Justice Roberts and soon-to-be Justice Alito," said Richard Land, who is president of the Southern Baptist Convention's Ethics & Religious Liberty Commission and is a political ally of White House adviser Karl Rove. "This was an extremely injudicious judge who went way, way beyond his boundaries -- if he had any eyes on advancing up the judicial ladder, he just sawed off the bottom rung.")
But the final question in my friend's e-mail message -- "What more could you ask for?" -- gives me some pause. It seems to me that there is a LOT more I could ask for, quite reasonably. The ballot box, and even more so the courts, are last lines of defense. They are like anti- ballistic missile systems: when someone lobs a nuke at me, I sure am glad such systems are in place and work; but, it is not unreasonable for me to also ask that people quit lobbing nukes at me.

Unfortunately, the effort to make the public school curricula conform to evangelical Christian theology is not going to end any time soon. Despite Judge Jones' best efforts, even intelligent design is far from dead:
[P]roponents of intelligent design emphasized that the court decision would not cast them into the political and cultural wilderness. They have pushed their theory, which holds that life is too complicated to have arisen without the hand of a supernatural creator, to the center of legislative debates in more than a dozen states, and they intend to keep it there.
It is still very much alive in Kansas, for instance, and true believers in Iowa and elsewhere are reported to be largely indifferent to a federal court ruling in Pennsylvania:
"I don't think that a judge in one state is going to be able to tell everybody in all other states what to do," said Paul Brooks, a school board member and retired principal in Muscatine [Iowa] who favors teaching intelligent design. "So I don't get too excited about what he said." . . .

In South Carolina, State Senator Mike Fair has introduced a bill to encourage teaching criticism of evolution. Mr. Fair is also on a state education committee that is evaluating biology standards. He said although he had not read the Pennsylvania ruling, it offended him because it impugned board members' motives because they were Christians. "This case hasn't settled anything," Mr. Fair said.
Moreover, intelligent design is not the only stratagem being pursued. There is also a whole movement to persuade school districts to offer "elective" courses that will are claimed to fit with the Supreme Court dicta noting that the objective study of the Bible as history and literature in a non-required course might well be permissible under the Establishment Clause. See this: Texas District Adopts Disputed Text on Bible Study. The problem, though, is that unless Roberts and Alito do work some radical shift in Establishment Clause jurisprudence, there is almost no chance that such courses will survive challenge for one simple reason: the proponents of such courses are not at all interested in presenting anything approaching a neutral, academic study of the Bible, especially in a comparative sense. As even a brief tour of the National Council On Bible Curriculum In Public Schools website will make clear, the goal is not to teach the Bible as literature or history; it is to teach the Bible as a source of truth and a guideline for living.

And, therein lies the problem. On the one hand, even my friend would agree, I suspect, that teaching the Bible as truth violates the Establishment Clause. Yet, in the end, this is what the people supporting these causes are committed to having the schools do. The efforts to hide this fact inevitably fail, as they did in the Dover case, because they are so obvioulsy pretenses.

Why won't they just stop? There are innumerable forums in which to teach religion to children, from the family dining room to Sunday School to private religious schools, to televangelism, to innumerable private organizations. Why is it also so very important that the public schools, which must also educate students having profoundly different religious beliefs from those held the the Christian Right, be involved as well?

Wednesday, December 21, 2005

Ever Vigilant, The House Takes Action To Save Christmas

Courtesy of the Washington Post's Emily Messner I discovered that the House last week debated, and passed overwhelmingly, the following Resolution:
Whereas Christmas is a national holiday celebrated on December 25; and

Whereas the Framers intended that the First Amendment to the Constitution of the United States would prohibit the establishment of religion, not prohibit any mention of religion or reference to God in civic dialog: Now, therefore, be it

Resolved, That the House of Representatives --—

(1) recognizes the importance of the symbols and traditions of Christmas;

(2) strongly disapproves of attempts to ban references to Christmas; and

(3) expresses support for the use of these symbols and traditions, for those who celebrate Christmas.

Can you believe this silliness?

The debate on this resolution is high farce. The supporters are so damn earnest about their deep concern over the relentless attacks on baby Jesus that it is just sickening. What fun there is comes from the opponents, with the high point being John Dingell's submission of the following "poem":
'Twas the week before Christmas and all through the House,
no bills were passed 'bout which Fox News could grouse.
Tax cuts for the wealthy were passed with great cheer,
so vacations in St. Barts soon should be near.
Katrina kids were all nestled snug in motel beds,
while visions of school and home danced in their heads.
In Iraq, our soldiers need supplies and a plan,
and nuclear weapons are being built in Iran.
Gas prices shot up, consumer confidence fell.
Americans feared we were in a fast track to ... well.
Wait, we need a distraction, something divisive and wily,
a fabrication straight from the mouth of O'Reilly.
We will pretend Christmas is under attack,
hold a vote to save it, then pat ourselves on the back.
Silent Night, First Noel, Away in the Manger,
Wake up Congress, they're in no danger.
This time of year, we see Christmas everywhere we go,
From churches to homes to schools and, yes, even Costco.
What we have is an attempt to divide and destroy
when this is the season to unite us with joy.
At Christmastime, we're taught to unite.
We don't need a made-up reason to fight.
So on O'Reilly, on Hannity, on Coulter and those right-wing blogs.
You should sit back and relax, have a few egg nogs.
'Tis the holiday season; enjoy it a pinch.
With all our real problems, do we really need another Grinch?
So to my friends and my colleagues, I say with delight,
a Merry Christmas to all, and to Bill O'Reilly, happy holidays.
Ho, ho, ho. Merry Christmas.
I was sad to note, though, that in the end Dingell could not apparently bring himself to vote against the resolution.

We are one sick society right now.

I Laughed Out Loud At This

Tuesday, December 20, 2005

The Dover Intelligent Design Decision

Here is a link to Judge Jones decision in the Dover PA "Intelligent Design" decision. It is 132 pages long, but it is double spaced and is actually a pretty quick (and interesting) read. But for those of you who want the "Cliff Notes" version here it is:

Intelligent design posits -- indeed depends on -- the unsubstantiated supposition that there is a supernatural creator. As such, it is a theory rooted in religion, not science. Everyone knows that. And, everyone also knows that a state endorsement of intellgent design it is an endorsement of a particular religious belief. State endorsement of religious beliefs is prohibited by the Establishment Clause of the US Constitution. In addition, the evidence in the case makes clear that the purpose and effect of the Board in mandating that teachers inform their students of the Intelligent Design alternative was to advance a particular religiously based belief on the origins of life. For both of these reasons, the school board's action violated the constitutional ban on establishment of religion.

The more intersting aspect of the case actually has little to do with the Constitution. Judge Jones goes on at considerable length to address the scientific substance of Intelligent Design, concluding, essentially, that it is utter nonesense, at least from anything that approximates a "scientific" perspective. This part of the opinion owes much to "Finding Darwin's God" by Kenneth Miller, who was a Plaintiff's expert witness in the case. And, if I may say so, Miller's conclusions are summarized both more succinctly and more eloquently in my own post on the subject in August.

Be that as it may, what's interesting is why Judge Jones felt compelled to spend 50 or so pages of his decision rebutting intelligent design on the scientific merits. The question of whether ID is "right" or "wrong" or whether it is "scientific" or "unscientific" has nothing at all to do with the Constitutional issue, which is settled once the court concludes (as it pretty obviously had to given the evidence) that the purpose of the the Board's action was to advance a religious belief as to the origins of life and it's effect was to amount to an endorsement of that belief.

My sense is that one reason for the digression was Judge Jones' (probably vain) hope that he could drive a stake in the heart of the Intelligent Design, and thereby save other courts from havng to deal with the issue. In addition, though, it may be a reflection of the fact that "truth" or at least "believability" of intelligent design was important to the Judge himslef. That is, despite the evidence of religious purpose and effect, he needed to prove to himself (and others) that the theory was also bad, bad pedagogy. It is as if the judge felt compelled to say that, beyond the formalistic legal problems, the theory itself was nonsense and that he would not stand idly by while such nonsense was taught to our children.

In this, the decision seems, at least subconciously, to accept Sam Harris' admonition that, for the good of us all, we have to start calling religious belief by it's real name: lunacy.

I don't disagree. But as a lawyer, bound as I am to think about these issues in terms of precedent and legal formalisms, I must confess to a bit of unease here. How does the "free exercise" clause fit into this? The core complaint of those advocating intelligent design is that evolution is anathema to the religious beliefs they are trying to pass on to their children. Their cri d'couer is: "But, you honor, they are teaching my children things that are inconsistent with my (and their) religious beliefs! Do I not have any right to object to public school teachings that are directly contrary to my own religious beliefs? How is that not inconsistent with the Constitutional guarantee that I will be free to believe as I want to believe?"

The only answer to this question is, I fear, that YOU are free to teach your children whatever you want. But, when it comes to public schools, that are run by the state and that are teaching ALL of the children in the community, we are not going to teach intelligent design any more than we are going to teach alchemy, astrology or animism just becuase there are lunatics out there who believe that nonsense. In short, YOU are free to believe whatever you want to, and to try to inculcate such beliefs in your children. But the state is going to insist that there be some evidence to support the thoeries it teaches all children.

Maybe Sam is right. The debate at this level is actually far more candid and, in the end, far fairer to both sides that are the arid formalisms of the Supreme Court's Establishment Clause jurisprudence.

Maybe There Is A Crime

On Sunday, I speculated that the only thing that separated the second Bush term from the second Nixon term was that "there is (as yet) no hint that Bush himself may have been involved in criminal activity."

When I wrote that, I was aware of Bush's internal spying program and even of Bush's passionate defense of that program. It occurred to me that this issue could be the "crime" that would complete the analogy to Nixon, but I pretty quickly dismissed that idea, concluding that internal spying probably didn't have enough "legs" to create an actual legal problem for Bush, especially since he was not trying to cover it up -- which all have concluded was Nixon's big mistake.

I am not so sure now. What I had failed to appreciate at the time is the extent to which Bush has thrown down a direct challenge to the power, even the relevancy, of Congress. He is basically asserting that the Constitution gives the President the power to ignore federal statutes if he concludes that the strictures imposed by those statutes interfere with what he feels he needs to do to protect national security. Nothing upsets Congress so much as a President telling it the Constitution makes it irrelevant on such questions. As such, this issue may very well prove to have as much "legs" for Bush as Watergate did for Nixon.

One thing seems clear. Unlike most Washington scandals, this one will not involve perjury, obstruction of justice, or other such derivative, investigation-induced crimes. For once, the issue is going to be the action itself rather than the cover-up. And, for that, at least, I give credit to Bush. He is not going to try to hide what he did. He is going to defend it.

Ironically, though, this tactic may make it all the harder for Congress, even a Republican controlled Congress, to ignore the issue, since it is hard to imagine a more brazen assertion of executive pre-eminence and Congressional subservience. Entirely apart from the affront this poses to the hubris of individual Congressmen, Congress as an institution can hardly let such a challenge pass without abandoning any pretense that it is a co-equal branch of government.

The issue has legs in another sense as well. There are going to be investigations. Arlen Specter, a maverick Republican, but a Republican nonetheless, has already said that the Senate Judiciary Committee will hold hearings on the spying authorizations. There will also be press investigations, with each reporter imagining himself to be the next Bob Woodward, the reporter to bring down a President. There will be adverse commentary, and not all of it from the Left. No less of a Bush fan than George Will is already questioning the legality of Bush's actions and, while continuing to give Bush the benefit of the doubt pending the availability of additional information on how and why Bush used his claimed powers, even Bill Kristol concedes that "Congress has the right and the ability to judge whether President Bush has in fact used his executive discretion soundly, and to hold him responsible if he hasn't." And, especially after the Valerie Plame incident, it is awfully hard to imagine how Bush could resist opening a criminal investigation into who leaked the information to the New York Times. Indeed, at his news conference on Monday, he indicated that, while he had not ordered such an investigation, he "presumed" the Justice Department had already opened an inquiry into who leaked the information about the NSA program. When the President presumes, Justice reacts.

The firestorm, in short, has started, and Bush will no more be able to control the outcomes than Nixon was. More facts on more questionable activities are certain to come out, and, as they do, Congress and the press will get more and more aggressive. With mid-term elections less that a year away, expect a fair number of Republicans, especially those from Blue States, to run for cover. If the Democrats happen to pick up a majority in either House in those elections, the "I" word (impeachment) will start to be heard. The issue, in short, is all set up for the kind of cluster-f**k that can undermine a Presidency.

Stayed tuned. This may get interesting.

Sunday, December 18, 2005

The End Of Another Imperial Presidency

It feels like deja vu all over again.

While I won't pretend to have done any rigorous comparison, the second Bush term seems strikingly similar to the second Nixon term. We are in the midst of a war with little popular support, highly questionable origins, no clear connection to the national interest, no clear exit strategy, and no credible definition or even likelihood of victory. Scandals and charges of corruption abound. High administration officials are under indictment. Stories on violations of law and civil liberites are coming out almost weekly, with the administration defending them on the basis of national security. The press smells blood and is following the scent like ravenous sharks finally released from their cages. The President's party, terrified of the looming mid-term elections, is in disarry and any sembelence of party discipline -- long the has defining characteristic of the Administraion -- has evaporated. And, most telling of all, the President is utterly incapable of reasserting control over the national agenda. He keeps trying, but nothing he says or does makes any difference. The old hot button phrases that have served him so well in the past -- phrases like "war on terror" and "national security" -- have not only lost their political punch they have actually become liabilities. Not only do people no longer believe that his acts serve those purposes, they have come to believe that the phrases themselves are cover-ups. Bush, like Nixon at about the same point in his presidency, is a man utterly at bay. About the only real difference I can see between the two adminitrations is that there is (as yet) no hint that Bush himself may have been involved in criminal activity. That difference plus the fact that his Party controls Congress, will doubtless save him from Nixon's fate. But the spectacle of a President who has utterly lost control is hauntingly familiar.

Thursday, December 15, 2005

Fighting Faith

I am about two-thirds of the way through "The End Of Faith" by Sam Harris. I may not finish it. It is one of those books that should have been an essay: an interesting thesis that could have been fully expounded in 10,000 words but that the author felt compelled to expand to 277 pages by making the same point over and over again.

The thesis, though, is one worth thinking about.

Harris' starting point is a commonplace: that faith -- particularly but not exclusively religious faith -- has been and continues to be a source of enormous evil in the world. Indeed, he spends much of his book describing case after case after case s of faith-based evil. His primary targets are the 14th Century Christian Inquisition and the 21st Century Muslim Jihadism. However, he also touches on a litany of other religiously based evil and even takes on such secular "faiths" as National Socialism and Communism. In doing so, he makes, at least implicitly, the point that the evil springs less from what is believed than from the fact of belief itself.

A deeply held belief that I am right and you are wrong on any issue important to either of us inevitably builds resentments between us that can easily escalate into hatred and violence. This is all the more likely where our disagreement is over something that is both (a) profoundlyimportant to at least one of us (e.g. the prospects of and eligibility for an afterlife) and (b) inherently incapable of being proved or even examined in any rational way. These are exactly the characteristics of religious belief, and it is for this reason that the evil produced by religion dwarfs into insignificance anything perpetrated by the Nazis or the communists or the Khmer rouge or all of such secular beliefs combined. But the point is still the same: true believers are dangerous. It is just that religious true believers are most dangerous of all.

If this was all Harris had to say, the book would be trite. But while the point tends to get lost amid a nearly endless catalogue of evils perpetrated in the name of faith, Harris' real message is that it is time for the world to start naming the evil out loud. He rightly points out that in today's society it is pretty much unthinkable to challenge another person's religious beliefs. These are matters that are considered, in the West at least, to be so personal and private as to be utterly beyond criticism. We may, of course, criticize the person's acts or the positions he takes. But even when it becomes obvious that the person's actions or positions flow directly from his faith, we have no ability to attack the faith itself despite the contempt we have for the actions or positions. All we can do, if we are so inclined, is to get into a hermeneutic debate as to whether the undergirdings of his faith (e.g. the Bible or the Koran) really do mandate what he believes they do. At the point at which we have exhausted that avenue (usually very quickly since hermenuetics for most people is itself an act of faith) we simply grow quiet. We feel it is wrong somehow to tell the person or the world that his beliefs themselves are utter nonsense

It is this squeamishness Harris wants us to outgrow.

A belief in a proposition for which there is no evidence is lunacy. We have no difficulty accepting that principle when the things believed in are alien abductions, ouiji boards, seances, invulnerability to bullets; the healing power of the snake oil salesman; etc. But when it comes to the question, say, of whether there is a heaven or hell and who will be eligible for each, we feel compelled to "respect" any belief whatsoever. We are not required, obviously, to ourselves accept what the other believes, but we are constrained by our devotion to "freedom of belief" to forbear from telling the person that his beliefs qualify him as a lunatic. But they do. The psychotic who hears voices telling him he is God has more evidence for that belief that the religious have for their belief in an afterlife. At least the psychotic has the evidence of his own senses. The believer in an afterlife does not even have that. He is in the position of one who believes that the psychotic is God simply because the psychotic told him he was.

There are many lunacies we put up with because they don't do us any harm. If Joe Blow wants to believe he was abducted by aliens, we let him because it really doesn't make any difference to us what Joe Blow believes. But things change when Joe Blow starts recruiting others to blow up things because the aliens told him to. In that case, we have no compunction about telling the potential recruits that Joe is a lunatic. Yet, if Joe tells his recruits to blow up stuff because God commands it (and will reward them with paradise in the after life) our willingness to label Joe a lunatic is significantly vitiated. We may, and do, try to stop the recruits from acting on Joe's instructions. But our argument is always that Joe is misinterpreting scripture or God's commands or whatever. We are very reluctant to call the belief itself lunacy. For if we do, there is no stopping. If belief in propositions for which there is no evidence is a good working definition of lunacy, then all religious belief is lunacy and we have no basis for condemning Joe's particular brand of lunacy any more than we do the lunacy shared by more peaceful co-religionists. All we can condemn are his acts or the acts he is advocating. But this leaves Joe with his most dangerous weapon -- his faith -- unchallenged.

But what about all the good that has been done in the name of religion? First of all, religion hasn't done that much good. Mother Teresa is famous precisely because she is so exceptional. And, for every Mother Teresa there are dozens of pederast priests. Second, the good has been done in the name of religion is far outweighed by the evil that has been done in he same cause. Religion has killed far, far more people than it has saved (in the corporeal sense). Finally, there is (again) no evidence that religion has anything to do with whatever good that has been done by religious people. An equally plausible explanation is that the religious people who have done good have done it because of who they are and would have done the same thing whether or not they were religious. That is, it is at least as likely that the impulse to do good leads some people to be religious as it is that being religious leads some people to do good.

Harris acknowledges a profound difference between 21st Century Christians and 21st Century Muslims. Rarely do you see Christians blowing themselves up in pursuit of their faith (although the actions of Christian fundamentalists shooting abortion doctors and bombing abortion clinics in the name of God seems different only in degree). But, he argues, convincingly I think, that the reason for the general differences between Christians and Muslims today is that Western Christians have largely moved beyond the principles of their faith, at least as those principles are set out in the Bible while the Muslims have not. There are whole swaths of the Bible that most modern Christians would find abhorrent if they ever bothered to read it. If you don't believe me, try reading Leviticus, Deuteronomy and Joshua some day. Indeed, most modern (i.e. non-fundamentalist) Christians see the entire Old Testament as being something of an anachronism in a religious sense. How half of the inerrant Word of God could become anachronistic over time without shaking people's faith in the rest of it is something that is hard to fathom. But it is a commonplace in modern Christian churches for the faithful to blithely dismiss the Old Testament as having been "superseded" by the New. What? The infallible deity changed his mind?

But even if we accept that convenient little sleight of hand, the New Testament itself has more than enough in it to make the modern Christian uncomfortable. Take Revelations for a starter. All of this creates enormous cognitive dissonance for the modern Christian. Yet rather than questioning his faith, he handles the dissonance by simply ignoring the "bad parts" and concentrating on the "good parts": the Sermon on the Mount, the Beatitudes, the Psalms, etc.

There is some of this going on in the Muslim world today. Western Muslim clerics and believers repeatedly stress that Islam is a religion of peace. But Harris makes a pretty good case for the conclusion that they can do this only by ignoring much of the Koranic text and/or by putting on that text "interpretations" that bear little resemblance to the actual language. This is what Christians have also done over the 600 years since the Inquisition. But this civilizing process is not (yet perhaps) taken root in the larger Muslim world. The Muslim masses still believe all of it. And they believe that the words mean what they appear to mean. So, when the Koran says that the reward for dying in the battle against the infidel is eternal salvation (and unlimited sexual promiscuity) that actually believe that. So they go out and blow themselves and their "enemies" to smithereens. Lunacy indeed. Yet the fact that Western Christians do not today share a correlative lunacy has more to do with the fact that Western Christians are today simply more willing to ignore more of their holy text than Muslims are. That was not always the case, though. Witness the Inquisition. And it may not always be the case. As much as we might hope that Islam is headed for its own Enlightenment, it seems at least as likely that Christianity is in the process of a retrograde movement toward Islam. Indeed, American fundamentalists appear to be proving Harris' point: the more believers come to truly believe that the Bible (or the Koran or any religious text) is actually true, the more intolerant, violent and dangerous they become. If we are to stop this, Harris argues, we have to be willing to go beyond condemning the acts and condemn the lunacy that produces them.

I'm not sure where all this leaves me. On a macro scale, much of Harris' thesis is hard to dispute. The historical evidence is just too overwhelming. And, if there is any merit to the injunction to "speak truth to power" perhaps Harris is right to suggest that we all ought to be telling James Dobson and anyone else who listens that he is a lunatic, not just for his positions but for his beliefs.

But when one comes down to the individual level, things get dicier. I have often said that my mother-in-law, Margaret, is probably the one "true" Christian I have ever met. She is profoundly religious yet never have I seen her faith impel her to condemn anyone, even me, her lost sheep. Is there really a need for me to confront Margaret with the fact that her faith is lunatic? Even if I did, she would just smile and say, "Oh Billy. You don't really mean that." Or some such. The fact of the matter is that, religious faith exerts a positive force in the lives of some, perhaps many, people. They recognize that portions of the Bible are problematic, but they just choose to believe that those parts are part of the inscrutable mystery of God. Our problems with the "bad" parts is not a problem with the Word; it is a reflection of our inability to fully understand. While I find this sort of faith hard to understand and impossible to practice, do I really wish that, even if I had the power to do so, I could take that faith from them. In the case of Margaret, at least, the answer is clearly no. Even if it is lunacy, it is a lunacy that is at the very worst harmless and at best a positive force in her life and the lives of those with whom she interacts.

So in the end, the problem Harris has identified -- that much evil is done in the name of faith -- is clearly true, but trite, and the solution he proposes fails because it is overbroad. It is not faith per se that is the problem. The problem lies in what people do with that faith. And, one cannot condemn all faith simply because some of the faithful use their faith for evil purposes.

Thus Spake Zarathustra.

Tuesday, December 13, 2005

Agricultural Subsidies and the Developing World

I haven't done much blogging for the past month. My wife heard an interview with some guy who has written a book on bloggers and who indicated that something like 85% of bloggers quit after about a year. My first post on this blog was almost exactly a year ago and Judy suggested that maybe I was one of the 85%.

There may be something to that. But I don't think ennui is really the reason. The real reason is that I find I have little new to say. There is a lot going on in the world about which I care a lot. But it seems like it's just the same thing over and over again. So, when I see something that seems comment worthy, I realize that I have already said everything I have to say about that. And I wonder, "Why say it again?"

Well, whatever the reason, I found something today that piqued my interest again. Actually two things, both op-ed pieces, one in the LA Times and the other in the NY Times Both are on a subject -- the role of trade policy in helping the 3rd World -- that I have been discussing/debating some with my youngest son, who is an International Relations major at the University of Wisconsin.

The LA Times piece argues that eliminating the developed world's agricultural subsidies and other restraints on trade in agricultural goods would be one of the most important steps the developed world got take in assisting economic development in the third world.
Seventy percent of the world's poor live in rural areas and depend on agriculture to earn a living and feed their families. But instead of being able to freely sell what they produce, they are often denied entry into markets as rich countries protect and prop up their own farmers — subsidizing products and imposing high tariffs on imports.

Rich countries — primarily the U.S., Japan and the members of the European Union — spend $280 billion annually on agricultural support. That's $5 billion a week to protect their often-rich farmers from competition. Ultimately, it is the taxpayers and consumers in these countries who shoulder the costs of these support programs. Economists estimate that consumers pay $168 billion a year because of tariffs, and taxpayers pay $112 billion a year for direct subsidies.

But the real damage is done to farmers in poor countries, because high tariffs keep them out of key markets, and tariffs and subsidies together drive down the world price of their exports. Without the income that trade could provide, it is their children who go hungry and who are deprived of clean water, medicines and other basic necessities of life.

Tariffs also hurt poor countries by blocking them from moving up the production chain. Even though 90% of the world's cocoa beans are grown in developing countries, they produce only 4% of its chocolate. One reason is that tariffs often escalate with the degree of processing — in the EU, producers of raw cocoa pay a tariff of 0.5% of the value of the beans, semi-processed cocoa pays about 10% of its value and chocolate even more.

If the rich countries would agree to level the playing field, everyone would see enormous gains. The World Bank estimates that full liberalization of trade in goods alone could generate $300 billion per year for the global economy. Developing countries would gain $86 billion of this share. And these numbers can grow as producers in poor countries take advantage of new markets.
The NY Tmes article does not really dispute this, but it makes painfully clear the significant practical obstacles that stand in the way:
It's true that the European Union needed to reform its agriculture policies. But any farm sector can absorb only so much reform at once. Unlike the nongovernmental organizations calling so vociferously for cuts in subsidies, governments have responsibilities to the citizens who elect them. The changes we have already begun are having an extensive impact on Europe's farm regions. As a result of the sugar reforms, producers in Ireland and Finland may well go out of business. We have seen no comparably bold action by any other major W.T.O. member, the United States included.

As the talks begin today, our fellow negotiators should be in no doubt that all the European Union's governments agree that there is no reason to move further on agricultural tariffs. They all agree that the time has come for others to respond in other areas of the Doha agenda, like lowering industrial tariffs and liberalizing service industries, to the moves we have already made.
Ignore for the moment the absurdity of basing international trade policy on the interests of Irish and Finnsih sugar farmers. (Are there such people?) The argument being made here is that the EU should not be asked to lower agricultural supports and tariffs unless and until the 3rd world countries lower their tarriffs on services and manufactured goods.

It is this point that my son has so much difficulty with. If the goal were actually to help the 3rd world to develop, then lowering barriers to our agricultural markets while allowing them to protect their nascent manufacturing businesses would make a whole lot of sense. Take the choclate example. Country A grows cocoa beans, most of which it exports. It would make sense for them to move up the manufacturing chain and start making cocoa and perhaps even chocolate. But, they have enough trouble competing with the developed world's chocolate manufacturers under the best of circumstances. When that is compounded by high tarriffs in the only markets with significant demand for chocolate, they have no real chance of developing a chocolate manufacturing business. If the goal of the developed world were to help Country A develop, it would be entirely consistent for the developed world to agree to eliminate their tarriffs and subsidies on both cocoa and finished chocolate and yet agree to allow Country A to maintain tarriffs on imported chocolate and subsidies for domestically manufactured chocolate. The effect would be to give Country A greater acccess to the devloped world's markets for both cocoa an finished chocolate and yet allow it to protect it's nascent chocolate industry from competition by establieshed chocolatiers.

There is an obvious asymetry here, but that asymetry is really not all that significant for the developed world. While it is critical that Country A's manufacturers have access to the developed world's chocolate markerts, the converse is probably not true: after all exactly how much chocolate can the people of Country A be expected to buy? Moreover, if the Country A chocolate market is significant, the developed world can get around the tarriffs by building maufacturing plants in Country A. This would allow them to compete in that market and at the same time contribute to Country A's economic develpoment by providing (relatively) good paying jobs to its citizens.

In short, if the goal really were to help the third world, the approach outlined in the LA Times piece would make all kinds of sense even if the third world were not required to reciprocate. As the NY Times piece makes clear, though, helping the 3rd world is not really the goal. The goal is to help the workers and businesses in the developed world. The workers and businesses in the developed world have competing interests, of course, with some wanting to protect exisiting domestic businesses from foreign competiton while others want to expand exports to those same countries. Those conflicts are what drive these countries to even be willing to consider "free trade." But, for concessions to be politically saleable, getting something in return is a necessity. Specifically, if Country A wants access to developed markets in what they presently produce (e.g. agricultural goods) then the developed countries will insist that they give up protections with respect to those things that they ultimately want to produce (manufactured goods). One can easily see how this quid pro quo demand can be seen (or at least portrayed) as a way for the developed world to prevent the 3rd world from ever being able to compete in areas beyond agricultural goods.

The politics of all this is very real and one cannot ignore that reality and continue to be relevant. However, it occurs to me that there is one interest that is being ignored here. Absent economic development, the 3rd world is going to continue to pose security challenges, even threats, to the developed world. Even if it costs us some jobs, mitigating that threat may be worth the cost.

One final point: If you haven't peeked already, who do you suppose wrote the the LA Times piece? Some mushy headed liberal do gooder no doubt, right? Hardly. The author is none other than that arch neo-con Paul Wolfowitz, the man who did more than any other to bring us the war in Iraq. I admit that the thought of agreeing with PW on anything cuases me some significant cognitive dissonance. But there it is. In the 21st Century it gets harder and harder to figure out where on the left-right political spectrum anyone really is.

Tuesday, December 06, 2005

The Vatican Position on Gays

Ellen Goodman had a column today that did a lot to help me crystallize my own queasiness about the Vatican's recent ruling on gays in the priesthood.

She starts off recognizing that most peoples' feelings about gays in general and gay civil rights in particular depend on whether they believe homosexulaity is a choice or a trait. Those who believe it is a trait -- something that is intrinsic to who they are -- are generally tolerant of gays and supportive of their civil rights claims. Those who believe homosexuality is a choice are generally intolerant of gays and opposed ot civil rights claims in particular.

Goodman then goes on to point out that the Vatican has turned this common sensical division on it's head, saying that those who are truly gay cannot be priests regardless of how they act while those who have simply dabbled in it are OK.

Mindboggling.