Saturday, November 18, 2006

Who Will Play Ohio State?

Let the arguments begin!

In a great game, OSU beat Michigan by 3 points at home despite giving up 10 points on three trunovers. If you believe the talking heads on the sports shows, everyone agrees that these are the two best teams in the country, so by that standard, Michigan should shjow up as no. 2 in the BCS on Monday, which would essentially assure them a spot in the National Championship game. (They probably will stay at number 2 in the computer polls, since Michigan was rated no. 1 in 4 of the 5 computer rankings last week and nothing about the games today will cuase them to drop to no. 3 there). But my guess is that the "people polls" will probably drop Michigan to at least 4th behind USC & Florida and maybe even to 5th behind Notre Dame despite the fact that Michigan beat Notre Dame handily early in the season.

Oh, and Rutgers lost to Cincinnati, so that nightmare is over.

The Bucs are in, and there are only 4 teams that have any chance of joining them: USC, Florida, Notre Dame, and Arkansas. But, USC plays ND and Arkansas plays Florida. Oh, and Michigan beat ND handily.

So (assuming there are no more significant upsets) ,OSU's opponent will be:
  • USC, unless it loses to ND; or
  • If USC loses ro ND, then the winner of the Florida-Arkansas game, unless LSU beats Arkansas and Arkansas beats Florida; or
  • Michigan

But who knows. The OSU-ND match-up is so attractive (Smith v Qiuinn; ND fan base v Big 10 fan base, etc.) that ND could get the nod over Michigan so long a ND beats USC.

This is fun!

Update (Monday Morning): Well, the BCS came out with Michigan still at no. 2 a hair ahead of of USC. If USC beats Notre Dame next week and UCLA the week after, my guess is that it will edge into second place and play OSU in the National Championship game. But, if Notre Dame beats USC, it's anyone's guess. It will be very hard for the polls to put ND ahead of Michigan given that Michigan thumped them. So, if ND beats USC, it will come down to a choice between Michigan and the winner of the Florida and Arkansas game (assuming Florida beats Flarida State and Arkansas beats LSU). Ironically, Arkansas probably has a better chance than Florida of jumping over Michigan in the polls becuase for it to win out it has to beat two top tean teams.

As a Big Ten fan, my dream scenario is this: ND beats USC, LSU beats Arkansas, Arkansas beats Florida, and Rutgers beats West Virginia. If all of that happens there would be Big Ten teams ranked 1, 2 and 4 at the end of the season becuase Wisconsin would move up to no. 4.

I can't quite believe I am so deep into the details of all of this. I'm getting goofy in my old age.

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