Political Pendulums

James Taranto had (for him) a singularly introspective piece in today's WSJ Best of the Web. He argues, quite rightly I think, That JFK represented the high point of "confident liberlaism;" that the ensuing years marked a gradual decline in the power of liberalism culminating in the disasterous Presidency of Jimmy Carter; and that Reagan marked the beginning of an era of "confident conservatism" that has culminated in the Presidency of George Bush. Looking forward, he sees "the presidency of George W. Bush, and especially his muscular foreign policy, as a continuation of the Reagan era." But even he does not really believe that, for he goes on to acknowledge that:

There is an argument to be made on the other side: that conservatism is now in its LBJ phase, having produced swollen government at home and overextended America's capabilities abroad. The left, meanwhile, is as weak, angry and paranoid as the right was in the heyday of the John Birch Society--but perhaps one day it will reconnect with reality and resurge politically.

I think he is right in a general sense: there is an ebb and flow between progressive and conservative impulses and the success of either inevitably generates in its devotees the hubris that in the end is its downfall. I also tend to think he is right in his charatcterization of today's "Left": they do tend to resemble the Right in the days of LBJ.

Where I think he is wrong, though, is in his prediction (more properly hope, I think) that "confident conservatism" will survive George Bush. We may have to go through liberalism's analog to Richard Nixon and conservativism's version of Jimmy Carter first. But my guess is that, 25 years from now, we will all recognize that the admisistraion of George Bush was the point at which "confident conservatism" began to wane as a force in American politics.

And then the cycle will start all over again, of course.